What can history teach us about the present?

February 29, 2024

“Many of today’s investors and their advisers haven’t experienced more than one interest-rate tightening cycle and some may not have even lived through the global financial crisis (GFC). As a result, few people today can draw on their personal experiences to help them navigate the latest rate tightening cycle and its aftermath, so learning about the past might be the only way to appreciate what is happening now and could arise in the future.”

In our latest article for Firstlinks, Talaria Co-CIO Chad Padowitz discusses the role of history in helping to understand where the current market might be heading and how best to prepare.

“At the moment, the ‘higher for longer’ interest rate scenario and the expectation of recession have largely been priced out of markets. US stock markets are pricing in cuts in interest rates this year alongside a double-digit reacceleration in corporate profits.  Falling bond yields have allowed multiples to expand and stocks to rise. But this situation is against the odds,” Chad says.

Read our full Firstlinks article to find out why.


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