“This time it’s different” – but investor returns under pressure

May 2024


The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different’; and we have been hearing this a lot recently, says Hugh Selby-Smith, Talaria co-CIO.

“The boom in Artificial Intelligence (AI), a rise in big government spending programs, and high employment levels, seem to have enticed investors into this optimistic point of view.

“Scratch under the surface, however, and a different picture emerges. The market is currently offering few opportunities for investors to make decent returns.”

Hugh says this is particularly evident in the all-important US, where corporate earnings’ forecasts overall are stagnant or getting worse, the employment outlook is weakening, and valuations are rising from already extended levels.

Read the article in Adviser Voice to learn more



With Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) negative in the first quarter and historical trends suggesting a similar downturn for GDP and company earnings, Coincident Indicators (CEI) are likely to fall. Employment figures are also starting to show signs of instability.

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